Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems support productive marine ecosystems fueled by coastal upwelling, which supplies nutrients into the ocean sunlit surface layer. However, upwelling and biology can become decoupled due to the combined effects of biology-mediated temporal lags and/or persistence, and horizontal advection by surface currents. This decoupling makes it challenging to identify how upwelling drives biological patterns and requires searching beyond conventional correlation analysis. In this talk, I will show how we can uncover the link between upwelling and biological response, including plankton, carbon export, and deep-sea animals, by using minimalistic mechanistic models. I will also present how the knowledge gained can be used to predict upwelling-driven biological changes across broad spatial regions.