Happy Holidays!

By Jessica Jang, Pacific Shark Research Center

Happy Holidays to all, and what better way to share the season with some festive themed marine animals and some information about them!

  1. Christmas Island Land Crab  (Gecarcoidea natalis)   
    dsc_0869-ciredcrab-251207
    Photo credit: Mountainsbeyond.org

This brightly colored land crab is found only on Christmas Island and the Cocos Island and live in the rain forests; they are diurnal despite the lower temperatures and higher humidity. During the wet season (October-December) adult crabs go an arduous migration to the beaches to spawn. There are even road signs in Christmas Island to protect the crabs from during their mating season. Here's a clip about the migration of these interesting invertebrates!

2. Christmas Feather worms (Serpulidae)

3-christmas-tree-worms-e1376422280604-521x330
Christmas Tree Feather Worms; photo courtesy of Becky

These worms make their own tubes and are commonly found in corals and come in a variety of colors. The colorful 'tree-like' appendages are used to capture food. Any slight pressure change alerts the worm to withdraw those appendages safely into their tubes. They are a common species for aquarium users, but are a challenge to maintain.

3. Sea Angels (Gymnosomata)

tumblr_njzw8jirby1u38rr5o4_1280

While these sea angels won't be singing a chorus, they are a sight to behold. Found in the arctic seas, these translucent and gelatinous gastropods (snails and slugs) have lost their shells, and evolved their 'sticky' foot into 'wings' to swim gracefully in the water column. There are a variety of species and they are no more than a couple several inches long. Below is a clip of how these angels move around!

 

4. Sea Stars (Asteroidea)

ebb4847da41fabd9619ea849a981d265414528b0
Chocolate-chip sea star (Protoreaster nodosus) photo credit: Marta RubioTexeira

These (usually) five-armed echinoderms are a perfect addition for our list! However do not let its looks deceive you. Sea stars have a very effective way of eating, prying the shell opening and then sticking its whole stomach inside a bivalve (mussel, clam, scallops, or oysters) and slurping the whole organism leaving an empty shell! Here's a link of a time-lapse video of it!

 

5. Angelfishes (Pomacanthidae)

emporer-angelfish
Juvenile emperor fish (Pomacanthus imperator) (top); adult (bottom) photo from Saltwatersmarts.com

Not to be confused with the freshwater angelfishes, marine angelfishes are found in shallow tropical waters around the world, these ornate and festive looking fishes consist of 87 different species that reside in coral reefs. Juvenile species have a color variation different than the adults. Many of these species are protogynous hermaphrodites, meaning while one male control his harems of females, if that male dies, the largest female will then become a male!

MLML at the Marine Mammal Conference

By Jackie Lindsey, Vertebrate Ecology Lab smm-2015-logo

This week marked the 21st Biennial conference of the Society of Marine Mammology (SMM) .  For any budding marine mammologist, this conference is a dream come true - many of the great authors and researchers that we read in class and cite regularly are HERE in San Francisco. We have the chance to make some great connections for current and future research.

Moss Landing Marine Laboratories was well represented this year, with many former and present students giving poster or oral presentations.  Those that did not present were in attendance, lending support and enthusiasm.

 

 

IMG_1412.jpg
Jackie Lindsey presenting on her sea otter habitat study

One of the unique things about the field of marine science is that it is so interdisciplinary. I was able to attend talks that discussed everything from paleontology to acoustics. I tried to spend a lot of time listening to topics that I am unfamiliar with - when else will I get to hear a complex topic explained by an expert!

IMG_4860.jpg
Keith Hernandez - presenting on his sea lion diet study

Of course, no conference would be complete without evening events to level out our science-filled brains after a day of talks.  This year was spectacular, and we only left when we could no longer stay awake.

IMG_6140
View from the top of the hotel - LGBT mixer

Second only to all of the cool science, my favorite part of the conference was a workshop put on (in part) by our own Gitte McDonald and Alison Stimpert.

IMG_1775.jpg
Gitte McDonald, presenting the results of her porpoise heart rate study

The workshop addressed a myriad of topics under the umbrella of work-life balance.  I don't know a single graduate student (in any field) who wouldn't benefit from putting a little thought into this topic. The theme of the 21st SMM was "bridging the past towards the future", and I was proud to see MLML scientists helping to do just that.

I leave you with a picture of our fearless leader, director Jim Harvey, getting into the spirit of the conference.

IMG_4874.JPG
Jim Harvey in his role as poster pod leader and sea lion "supporter"

Let's do it again soon - I'll see you at SMM Halifax 2017!

Tiny Giants

By Heather Fulton-Bennett, Phycology Lab

The Monterey Bay Aquarium recently welcomed a new Giant Sea Bass (Stereolepis gigas) to their Kelp Gardens exhibit. Unlike its name, this new addition isn't so giant - barely 4 inches long!

Juvenile Giant Sea Bass

Giant sea bass are found along the west coast from Humboldt Bay to Baja California, Mexico and can reach up to 8 feet long. While rarely seen in the Monterey Bay, they are recovering from overfishing and are being seen more in southern California. The aquarium also has a sub-adult in the Kelp Forest tank, and two adults in their Monterey Bay Habitat exhibit. You can see more of this little one here or head to the aquarium yourself!

The Monterey Bay Aquarium is free for residents of Monterey, Santa Cruz, and San Benito Counties through Dec. 13th, so go check out the new arrivals and old favorites!

WSN 2015; another successful conference

By Angela Zepp

Another spectacular Western Society of Naturalists conference came and went last month. For those of you who aren’t familiar, WSN is a fun-packed, scientific society that focuses on ecology, evolution, natural history, and marine biology. This year marked the 96th annual meeting which was held in Sacramento and had the largest turnout to date! It seems the attendance at WSN grows every year and it’s really not surprising.  The annual conference attracts scientists, not just from the west coast, but from all over the world. This year, there were even a few students all the way from New Zealand giving presentations. The conference is packed with like-minded individuals eager to learn and present new ideas.

The 2015 WSN logo created by Beth and Mary Lenz

This 3-day long conference incorporates a bunch of 15 minute presentations of researchers ranging from undergrads all the way to well esteemed scientists.  There are also themed symposiums in the mornings and workshops in the afternoons. This year’s theme for the student symposium was ‘Critical issues and innovative approaches in marine policy along the Northeast Pacific coast’ and “Global Change Marine Ecology” for the presidential symposium.

If you're interested in attending WSN, next year’s 97th annual meeting will be right here in Monterey! 2016 marks the 100th anniversary of the society itself so it’s sure to be quite an exciting conference. Mark your calendars for November 10th-13th 2016.

The conference isn’t just all science. WSNers know how important it is to work hard and play hard so after attending all these talks, what better place to mingle and unwind with a drink or 3 than the Monterey Bay Aquarium? This year's Attitude Adjustment Hour (AAH) will be held at the Monterey Bay Aquarium. You won't want to miss it! There's also the infamous auction held every year to raise money for student travel funds. Thanks to all the participants, booze and aggressively....enthusiastic auctioneers, the 2015 auction raised over $1,500!

For those students concerned about traveling to Monterey, there are Student Travel Funds available to offset the cost of gas and lodging. There are also exciting student awards as incentive to present your ideas. Hope to see you all at next year's WSN conference!

A bridge, some boats, and a boom!

By Catarina Pien, Pacific Shark Research Center

One of the unique consequences of being a student at MLML is the opportunity to participate in research opportunities outside of the institution. Many alumni from MLML end up working at surrounding research agencies and organizations, and thus will turn to the lab to look for students to help out with various projects. For example, while being a student at MLML, I have been able to participate on consulting projects and assorted research cruises, allowing me to gain valuable research experience and insight into my future career goals.

This past month, two of our ichthyology faculty members, Drs. Richard Starr and Scott Hamilton, were contacted by alumnus William VanPeeters, who now works for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans), to work on an exciting project involving the demolition of a portion of the old Bay Bridge.

IMG_1862
Bay Bridge (new bridge, not being demolished), Photo credit: Ryan Fields

Read More

Tales from the Field: Research at Catalina Island Part I

By Stephen Pang, Ichthyology Lab 230855_10150295628783835_1400708_n

This past summer began like any good summer does…with a trip to my favorite taco stand. After driving south from Monterey, I had finally arrived in Los Angeles. Five hours of driving (and waking up far earlier than I would have preferred) had caused me to develop a serious hankering for some carne asada topped with onion and cilantro. Three tacos later, I was finally full and continued south to San Pedro where I made my way aboard the Miss Christi. This 45-foot boat is owned and operated by the University of Southern California (USC) and would be taking me to my home for the summer, Santa Catalina Island (often just called Catalina).

The Wrigley Marine Science Center, my home for the summer. Photo by Dr. Mia Adreani.
The Wrigley Marine Science Center, my home for the summer. Photo by Dr. Mia Adreani.

Two hours and 22 miles later, the Miss Christi was pulling into Big Fisherman’s Cove on the northeast end of Catalina. This cove is home to the Wrigley Marine Science Center (WMSC), an environmental research and education facility owned by USC. For the next three months, I would be working on my thesis research here.

My work this summer focused on how size-selective harvesting affects the reproductive output of sex-changing fish. Specifically, I’m interested in fish that are called protogynous hermaphrodites. This is a fancy way of saying that these fish are born female and change into males later in life. In the species that I worked with this summer, blackeye gobies (Rhinogobiops nicholsii), this sex change is largely governed by social cues. Typically, a single male will have a harem of females that he spawns with. When the male is removed, the most dominant (usually the biggest) female will change sex and become the new male.

The species that I would be working with this summer, the blackeye goby (Rhinogobiops nicholsii).
The species that I would be working with this summer, the blackeye goby (Rhinogobiops nicholsii).

Many commercial and recreational fisheries tend to target the largest fish in a population. This is especially problematic with protogynous hermaphrodites since most of the largest individuals in a population are male. This size-selective fishing tends to skew gender ratios in favor of females in exploited populations. My research is trying to figure out at what gender ratio do males start to limit reproductive output (i.e. populations start to produce less new fish). Do we start to see this limitation when there is 1 male for every 5 females? What about 1 male for every 20 females? This is what I’m trying to figure out.

California sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) is a popular protogynous hermaphrodite that is the target of multiple fisheries. Size-selective harvesting has led to skewed gender ratios in some heavily exploited populations. Eventually I hope to apply the findings from my research to economically-valuable species like California sheephead. Photo by Monterey Bay Aquarium.
California sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) is a popular protogynous hermaphrodite that is the target of multiple fisheries. Size-selective harvesting has led to skewed gender ratios in some heavily exploited populations. Eventually I hope to apply the findings from my research to economically-important species like California sheephead. Photo by Monterey Bay Aquarium.

To test this, artificial reefs were constructed and fish were placed on each reef. Each reef had different gender ratios to simulate varying levels of exploitation (fish with fewer males were more “exploited”). The fish would then (in theory) lay their eggs which would then be examined for fertilized and unfertilized eggs (unfertilized eggs can be distinguished from fertilized eggs based on their cloudy, white appearance). The number of unfertilized and fertilized eggs would then be compared between the different gender ratios. The higher the proportion of unfertilized eggs, the stronger the male limitation.

Tyler Gerome swimming by one of our completed reefs! Photo by Dr. Mia Adreani.
Tyler Gerome swimming by one of our completed reefs! Photo by Dr. Mia Adreani.

So first things first, we had to build our reefs. A total of 20 reefs were constructed that consisted of cinder blocks and rocks. We collected our rocks from a nearby beach and dropped them (along with our cinder blocks) onto the seafloor in buckets attached to ropes. This was easily the most labor intensive part of the project but was also incredibly gratifying to see these reefs get built from nothing. Cages made out of wire mesh were placed over these reefs to prevent predators from eating our blackeye gobies. We also placed overturned terra cotta flowerpot saucers on each reef. Blackeye gobies readily lay eggs on the underside of these which would make it easy to quantify the number of fertilized and unfertilized eggs.

Tyler Gerome, Alexis Estrada, and Dr. Scott Hamilton collecting rocks that would later be used to construct our reefs. Photo by Dr. Mia Adreani.
Tyler Gerome, Alexis Estrada, and Dr. Scott Hamilton collecting rocks that would later be used to construct our reefs. Photo by Dr. Mia Adreani.
Dr. Mark Steel and graduate student Alexis Estrada constructing one of the cages that would be going over our reefs. Photo by Dr. Mia Adreani.
Dr. Mark Steele and graduate student Alexis Estrada constructing one of the cages that would be going over our reefs. Photo by Dr. Mia Adreani.

Once the reefs were built, we had to put fish on them! Using hand nets and SCUBA gear, we went out to local reefs to collect fish from native populations. Fortunately, blackeye gobies aren’t the brightest fish in the sea and could be easily caught by slowly placing our nets over them as they sat on the sand (they like to hangout on the interface between rocky reef and sand). For me, this was the most fun part of the whole project. By the end of the summer, I believe we had caught around 1,000 blackeye gobies. Suffice to say, I was counting blackeye gobies rather than sheep as I drifted off to sleep each night.

Erika Nava collecting gobies for our reefs! Photo by Dr. Mia Adreani.
Erika Nava collecting gobies for our reefs! Photo by Dr. Mia Adreani.

We would then return to the lab at WMSC where the gobies were tagged using visual implant elastomer (VIE) tags. These VIE tags are a liquid that is injected underneath the skin. After injection, the liquid cures into a pliable solid that can be easily seen through transparent tissue. These tags allowed us to quickly identify the size and sex of each individual. This was important as we would regularly check up on the fish to make sure that the desired gender ratios for each reef were maintained.

Determining sex, measuring length, and tagging our gobies in the lab! Photo by Alexis Estrada.
Determining sex, measuring length, and tagging our gobies in the lab! Photo by Alexis Estrada.
A VIE tagged blackeye goby on one of the reefs that we built. You can see the tag directly beneath the dorsal fin on the fish's "back".
A VIE tagged blackeye goby on one of the reefs that we built. You can see the tag directly beneath the dorsal fin on the fish's "back".

Once tagged, we released our gobies onto our artificial reefs. We had 20 reefs with 20 fish on each reef. We had 10 different gender ratios (each gender ratio is a different “treatment”) which ranged from 1 male:19 females to 10 males:10 females. Each gender ratio was represented on 2 reefs (these are what we call “replicates”). Once the gobies were released on to the reefs the bulk of our work was done! All that was necessary now was to monitor the saucers for eggs and to maintain the desired gender ratios.

Unfortunately, our gobies didn’t want to cooperate with us. They weren’t laying eggs and without eggs (to compare the proportion of unfertilized eggs between different reefs) we didn’t have any data! We aren’t 100% sure why they weren’t spawning but the leading theory is that the water was too warm. There were some days that temperatures on the bottom were as warm as 70F! That’s just how things go in this field sometimes though…it doesn’t always work out.

While everything may not have gone according to plan this past summer, I still learned a bunch. While I may not have collected any data that I can use for my thesis, I learned what will and what won’t work for this project. I learned how I can streamline the project and I have no doubt that everything will run much smoother in the future. And the most important thing of all, I learned that my advisor has some wicked moves on the dance floor. I look forward to returning to Catalina Island this summer to continue my thesis research.

Erika Nava and me on the surface before one of our collection dives.
Erika Nava and me on the surface before one of our collection dives.

Before I sign off, I wanted to thank Dr. Mark Steele, Dr. Mia Adreani, Dr. Will White and my awesome advisor, Dr. Scott Hamilton, who were the reason this project got off the ground in the first place. My research is part of a larger NSF project that the four of them are conducting that will be taking place at Catalina over the next two years. I’d also like to thank our wonderful assistant researchers/volunteers: Alexis Estrada, Tyler Gerome, Katie Neylan, and Erika Nava. They were out there every day with us busting their butts to get this work done. And last but not least, I’d like to thank the Wrigley Marine Science Center and the wonderful people that work there. Without all of these people, none of this would have been possible. See you guys next summer!

All of the amazing people involved with this project! From left to right: Hudson (Scott's son), Dr. Scott Hamilton, Dr. Will White, Erika Nava, Sam Ginther, Alexis Estrada, Dr. Mark Steele, Katie Neylan, Tyler Gerome, Dr. Mia Adreani, and me!
All of the amazing people involved with this project! From left to right: Hudson (Scott's son), Dr. Scott Hamilton, Dr. Will White, Erika Nava, Sam Ginther, Alexis Estrada, Dr. Mark Steele, Katie Neylan, Tyler Gerome, Dr. Mia Adreani, and me!

Halloween’s Most Festive Ocean Creatures!

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERABy Vicky Vásquez

Vicky Vásquez is a graduate student in the Pacific Shark Research Center and serves as Deputy Director of the Ocean Research Foundation.

 

Just in time for All Hallow’s Eve here’s a line-up of the ocean’s most festive Halloween animals! Check them out in all their ghastly horror, they’ve been waiting all year to get some haunting attention.

Halloween Crab (Gecarinus quadratus)

This list certainly could not begin without the arthropod waiting all year for its time to Trick and Treat. The Trick? Halloween crabs are not as beachy as you might think. They spend most of their lives in mangroves and rainforests along the Pacific coast of Mexico down to Panama. Since they have a planktonic larval stage, they only head to the ocean to spawn. The Treat? Racoons love them! Halloween crabs are an important food source in areas where the range of these two animals overlap.

Species: Gecarcinus quadratus Common name: Halloween Crab. Photo by E. Mena
Species: Gecarcinus quadratus Common name: Halloween Crab. Photo by E. Mena

Read More

What’s in a Mermaid Purse? (Part 2)

By Jessica Jang, Pacific Shark Research Center

In public aquariums, you might had the privilege of viewing an embryo developing in its egg case watching it grow from a little alien-like body to a fully developed shark or skate.

Big skate embryos developing. Photo credit: Monterey Bay Aquarium

But, have you wondered how did the aquarists were able to exhibit this without harming the developing embryos? I'll tell you! For my thesis, I have been monitoring the development of a species of skate called the Big skate (Beringraja binoculata). In order to do that, I had to learn how to cut open the egg case, and what better way to learn this technique from than from the experts at the Monterey Bay Aquarium?

The Monterey Bay Aquarium has a popular exhibit where they display embryos developing in an egg case, so I was very lucky to have one of the aquarists, Kelsey Barker teach me how to implement this.

First of all, we need fertile egg cases. Similar to birds, skates can lay unfertilized eggs in their egg cases, but dissecting an infertile egg case is not the best idea as it becomes very messy. This species, the Big skate (B. binoculata) is really interesting, because unlike other species of skates (currently 287+), it is one of TWO species of skates that have the ability to produce multiple embryos within an egg case! How cool is that? All other sharks, skates, and chimaera species produce one embryo per egg case. These Big skate egg cases range from 20 cm to 32 cm in total length (TL).

Egg case ready to be dissected.
Egg case ready to be dissected.

Once we have a fertile egg, we make sure that the horns of the egg case have opened up. These horns will allow us squeeze trapped air once we enclosed the egg case back up again. This protocol only requires several minutes, we have to take the egg case out to make sure the embryos don't float away! We carefully make an incision with a scalpel on the flat side of the egg case, as it's easier to glue the viewing window. Then using scissors, we cut a square opening in the middle of the egg case.

Cutting open the egg case to reveal embryos!
Cutting open the egg case to reveal embryos! Photo credit: M. Cruickshank
sharklab_19April158610
Embryos present! Cutting a square to place the viewing window. Photo credit: M. Cruickshank

Once the egg case has been successfully dissected, we dry the outer corners of the square, and use the two most highly 'scientific' items to place the viewing window; super glue and sheet protectors! We wait for the glue to dry and then immerse the egg case back into the water, squeezing any air bubbles out.

Skate embryos; photo credit: J.Jang
Finished product! Viewing window with embryos photo credit: J. Jang

Now the egg case is ready to be on exhibit or observed. Here is a picture of my tank setup!

sharklab_19April158601

These embryos will fully develop within six to eight months, this is around the time when they used up their yolk sacs, then they emerge out of their egg cases ready to show the world that being a baby skate isn't easy!

What’s inside a Mermaid Purse? (Part 1)

By Jessica Jang, Pacific Shark Research Center

Have you ever come across a strange peculiar object that looks like a dried out husk along the beach? Believe it or not, they're not driftwood or anything plant related, but are egg cases!

Egg cases of Common (Dipturus batis) off the shore of Scotland. Photo courtesy of http://www.glaucus.org.uk/Mermaid.htm

These egg cases are also commonly known as mermaid purses and vary in shape, sizes, and texture. Species of sharks, skates, and chimeras are know to lay mermaid purses.They are all created internally by the mother, then deposited on the sand floor or wrapped around kelp.

Most of the time, they end up washed up on shore, with nothing in them. Now, you may wonder, what is actually in mermaid's purse? Instead of giving live birth, these oviparous (egg-laying) species of sharks, skates, and chimeras, have found a method of producing offspring limiting the gestation period inside the mother. The eggs are internally fertilized in the female, this is also how the egg case is formed. The egg case is made of keratin, similar to the material from our hair and fingernails, the mother lays the egg case near kelp or on the sand camouflaging the egg case.

Inside there is a tiny embryo waiting to become a shark, skate, or chimera! These embryos are left to fend for themselves as soon as the mother deposits the egg case. Once placed in the perfect environment, the embryo will stay in their egg cases from three to 18 months, even longer, depending on the water temperature. After using up their yolk sacs, these embryos wriggle out and are ready to take on the next step of their lives! Interested in learning how aquariums manage to make a viewing window in an egg case? Click here!

Horn Shark (Heterodontus francisci) hatching out of egg case. photo credit: https://boredomfiles.com/
Little Skate (Leucoraja erinacea) emerging from egg case.

El Niño: the event of the season

Jackie LindseyBy Jackie Lindsey, Vertebrate Ecology Lab

In the past few months, I have been asked more questions about oceanography than in the entirety of my career at Moss Landing. Inquiring minds want to know: what is this "El Niño storm" that will save us from the drought in California?

What is an El Niño?

We can look at El Niño events in the context of the ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation.  ENSO is a term for a "climate event" that is so large that it can affect global atmospheric circulation.  ENSO fluctuates between three phases, which we refer to as El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral.  How are they different? Let's talk about the Pacific Ocean.

Under La Niña conditions, the Pacific Ocean sees below-average sea-surface temperatures.  Strong trade winds blowing from east to west along the equator push surface water out of the way and allow deep, cold water to rise to the surface in the eastern Pacific.  December 1988 in the below figure is a good example of La Niña conditions (think colder than average surface temperatures) across the Pacific.

Data and figure from NOAA Climate.gov
Data and figure from NOAA Climate.gov

But check out the bottom image in this figure from December 1997:  the strong east-to-west trade winds that blow the warm surface water out of the way for La Niña phases have lessened or even reversed.  This allowed that warm water to pool on the eastern side of the Pacific Ocean.  The water has sloshed back! The average sea-surface temperature is much higher than normal, and we call these conditions El Niño.

Notice how Peru is surrounded by warm water during an El Nino year?  South American fishermen were some of the first to notice the ENSO phenomenon, because this warm water around Christmas time could do some serious damage to their normally very productive fisheries!  They named this massive event "El Niño", in a seasonal reference to the "little boy" Christ child.

Enough about the ocean, what about the weather?

We cannot forget that what happens in the oceans is linked to what's happening in our atmosphere.  Warm water in the ocean leads to rising air and tropical storms.  La Niña phases usually have an increased amount of rainfall over Indonesia and decreased rainfall over the tropical Pacific.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino_normal.html
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino_normal.html

El Niño years are typically the opposite, with increased rainfall over the tropical Pacific and decreased rainfall over Indonesia.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino_normal.html
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino_normal.html

In addition to the atmospheric conditions, the above figures illustrate how water is pushed to the west in the La Niña phase and east in the El Niño phase.  Keep thinking of sloshing water in a Pacific-Ocean-sized glass.  The sloshing leads to warm or cold water at the surface and different atmospheric conditions as a result.

What does this mean for California?

I think you can see by now that El Niño is not a storm. It is not even a system of storms that will tumble through California, with enough water to save us from a series of drought years.  It is much, much bigger than that.  El Niño means changes in the ocean, which means changes in the atmosphere, which can affect atmospheric conditions and weather where YOU live.

Because we have been measuring and tracking the sloshing of the Pacific for several decades now, we can make some predictions about our atmosphere and our weather in an El Niño year like 2015. Scientists have seen the trade winds weakening and even sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific that are comparable to some of our strongest El Nino events, like November 1997.

Image fro NOAA
Image from NOAA

Some climate variables may be different from previous years, but what scientists have seen this year has lead them to predict that we might get lucky (with the rain) if El Niño conditions continue to strengthen.  In the past, El Niño has lead to wet winters in California.  Storms in the Equatorial Pacific (remember that pool of warm water?) have the chance to be swept north by a branch of the jet stream.  They might be carried far enough to the north that we will see rain in the northern parts of California.  However, there are no perfect models, and this year might be different.

Will it help the drought?

Even in this lengthy piece, I have not described all of the factors affecting our winter weather.  I simply cannot, and if you are curious, your research has just begun!  You may have heard of "The Ridge" and "The Blob" (aren't meteorologists great at naming things?), which have affected rainfall in California.  There's even a super-cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation that relates to ENSO, not to mention unknown effects of climate change on our global atmospheric patterns.

However our rainy season turns out, we should keep in mind that heavy rain on a dry landscape can mean dangers like flooding and landslides. California had trouble with this during our last strong El Niño of February 1998, so stay safe this winter!

You (and I) might want to do a little more reading:

ENSO climate.gov

Climate Patterns climate.gov

Rain in North America climate.gov

Keep the big picture in mind climate.gov

El Niño September update climate.gov

Ending the drought? news/opinion KCET