{"id":8473,"date":"2015-09-17T13:17:30","date_gmt":"2015-09-17T21:17:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mlmlblog.wordpress.com\/?p=8473"},"modified":"2020-10-23T12:01:22","modified_gmt":"2020-10-23T19:01:22","slug":"el-nino-the-event-of-the-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/2015\/09\/17\/el-nino-the-event-of-the-season\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o: the event of the season"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Jackie<\/a>By Jackie Lindsey<\/a>, Vertebrate Ecology Lab<\/a><\/h3>\n

In the past few months, I have been asked more questions about oceanography than in the entirety\u00a0of my career at Moss Landing. Inquiring minds want to know: what is this \"El Ni\u00f1o storm\" that will save us from the drought in California?<\/p>\n

What is an\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o?<\/strong><\/p>\n

We can look at El Ni\u00f1o events in the context of the ENSO, or El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation. \u00a0ENSO is a term for a \"climate event\" that is so large that it can affect global atmospheric circulation. \u00a0ENSO fluctuates between three phases, which we refer to as El Ni\u00f1o, La Ni\u00f1a, and Neutral. \u00a0How are they different? Let's talk about the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n

Under La Ni\u00f1a<\/strong> conditions, the Pacific Ocean sees\u00a0below-average sea-surface temperatures. \u00a0Strong trade winds blowing from east to west along the equator push<\/em> surface water out of the way and allow deep, cold water to rise to the surface in the eastern Pacific. \u00a0December 1988 in the below figure is a good example of La Ni\u00f1a conditions (think colder than average surface temperatures) across the Pacific.<\/p>\n

\"Data<\/a>
Data and figure from NOAA Climate.gov<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But check out the bottom\u00a0image in this figure from December 1997: \u00a0the strong east-to-west trade winds that\u00a0blow the warm surface water out of the way for\u00a0La Ni\u00f1a phases have lessened or even reversed. \u00a0This allowed that warm water to pool on the eastern side of the Pacific Ocean. \u00a0The water has sloshed<\/em> back! The average sea-surface temperature is much higher than normal, and we call these\u00a0conditions El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Notice how Peru is surrounded by warm water during an El Nino year? \u00a0South American fishermen were some of the first to notice the ENSO phenomenon, because this warm water around Christmas time could do\u00a0some serious damage to their normally very productive fisheries! \u00a0They named this massive event \"El Ni\u00f1o\", in a seasonal reference to the \"little boy\" Christ child.<\/p>\n

Enough about the ocean, what about the weather?<\/strong><\/p>\n

We cannot forget that what happens in the oceans is linked to what's happening in our atmosphere. \u00a0Warm water in the ocean leads to rising air and tropical storms. \u00a0La Ni\u00f1a<\/strong> phases usually have an increased amount of rainfall over Indonesia and decreased rainfall over\u00a0the tropical Pacific.<\/p>\n

\"http:\/\/www.pmel.noaa.gov\/tao\/elnino\/nino_normal.html\"<\/a>
http:\/\/www.pmel.noaa.gov\/tao\/elnino\/nino_normal.html<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong>\u00a0years are typically the opposite, with increased rainfall over the tropical Pacific and decreased rainfall over Indonesia.<\/p>\n

\"http:\/\/www.pmel.noaa.gov\/tao\/elnino\/nino_normal.html\"<\/a>
http:\/\/www.pmel.noaa.gov\/tao\/elnino\/nino_normal.html<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In addition to the atmospheric conditions, the above figures illustrate how water is pushed to the west in the La Ni\u00f1a phase and east in the El Ni\u00f1o phase. \u00a0Keep thinking of sloshing<\/em> water in a Pacific-Ocean-sized glass. \u00a0The sloshing leads to warm or cold water at the surface and different\u00a0atmospheric conditions as a result.<\/p>\n

What does this mean for California?<\/b><\/p>\n

I think you can see by now that El Ni\u00f1o is not a storm. It is not even a system of storms that\u00a0will tumble through California, with enough water to save us from a series of drought years. \u00a0It is much, much bigger than that. \u00a0El Ni\u00f1o means\u00a0changes in the ocean, which means changes in the atmosphere, which\u00a0can affect atmospheric conditions and weather where YOU live.<\/p>\n

Because we have been measuring and tracking the sloshing<\/em> of the Pacific for several decades now, we can make some predictions about our atmosphere and our weather in an El Ni\u00f1o year like 2015.\u00a0Scientists have seen the trade winds weakening and even sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific\u00a0that are\u00a0comparable to some of our strongest El Nino events, like November 1997.<\/p>\n

\"Image<\/a>
Image from NOAA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Some climate variables\u00a0may be different from\u00a0previous years, but what scientists have seen this year has lead them to predict that we might get lucky (with the rain) if El Ni\u00f1o conditions continue to strengthen. \u00a0In the past,\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0has lead to wet winters in California. \u00a0Storms in the Equatorial Pacific (remember\u00a0that pool of warm water?) have the chance to be swept north by a branch of the jet stream. \u00a0They might\u00a0be carried far enough to the north\u00a0that we will see rain in the northern parts of California. \u00a0However, there are no perfect models, and this year might be different.<\/p>\n

Will it help the drought?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Even in this lengthy piece, I have not described\u00a0all of the factors affecting our winter weather. \u00a0I simply cannot, and if you are curious, your research has just begun! \u00a0You may have heard of \"The Ridge\" and \"The Blob\" (aren't meteorologists great at naming things?), which have affected rainfall in\u00a0California. \u00a0There's even a super-cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation that relates to ENSO, not to mention unknown effects of climate change on our global atmospheric patterns.<\/p>\n

However our rainy season turns out, we should keep in mind that heavy rain on a dry landscape can mean dangers like flooding and landslides. California\u00a0had trouble with this during\u00a0our last strong El Ni\u00f1o of February 1998, so stay safe this winter!<\/p>\n

You (and I) might want to do a little more reading:<\/p>\n

ENSO<\/a>\u00a0climate.gov<\/p>\n

Climate Patterns<\/a>\u00a0climate.gov<\/p>\n

Rain in North America<\/a>\u00a0climate.gov<\/p>\n

Keep the big picture in mind<\/a>\u00a0climate.gov<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o September update<\/a>\u00a0climate.gov<\/p>\n

Ending the drought?<\/a>\u00a0news\/opinion KCET<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Jackie Lindsey, Vertebrate Ecology Lab In the past few months, I have been asked more questions about oceanography than in the entirety\u00a0of my career at Moss Landing. Inquiring minds want to know: what is this “El Ni\u00f1o storm” that will save us from the drought in California? What is an\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o? We can look […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":291,"featured_media":8488,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[310],"class_list":["post-8473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-drop-inblog","tag-vertebrate-ecology-lab"],"distributor_meta":false,"distributor_terms":false,"distributor_media":false,"distributor_original_site_name":"MLML Student Life","distributor_original_site_url":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life","push-errors":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/291"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8473"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8473\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20558,"href":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8473\/revisions\/20558"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mlml.sjsu.edu\/student-life\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}